Good morning, this is Eleanor Ainge Roy bringing you the main stories and must-reads on Wednesday 15 November. Top stories The fate of Australian same-sex couples hoping to marry will be revealed at 10am when the results of the unprecedented national postal survey are announced by the Bureau of Statistics. Public and internal polling put the likely yes vote at about 63%, but the result will be minutely scrutinised as jousting continues over which bill should be used to legislate marriage equality in the event of a yes majority. Celebratory events are planned by yes campaigners in all major cities, but the politics are certain to resume as soon as the figures are announced. Follow the Guardian's live blog from 8.30am AEDT for the result and all the reaction. Russia's defence ministry has tried to pass off what appear to be stills from a military simulation game as "irrefutable evidence" of cooperation between US forces and Islamic State militants in Syria. The photographs were appended to social media posts from the ministry's official accounts which accused the Americans of providing air cover for an Isis convoy with the aim of using Isis fighters to further US interests. The allegations are extremely grave, but may be hard to take seriously as none of the five photographs were what the Russians claimed. Online sleuths said one photograph was apparently a screenshot from the promo for a mobile phone game called AC-130 Gunship Simulator: Special Ops Squadron. Conflict Intelligence Team, a group of Russian online investigators who fact-check claims by the Russian military, said that the other four photographs appear to be taken from 2016 footage released by Iraq's ministry of defence, depicting the Iraqi air force bombing Isis targets near Falluja. Soon after people noted the dubious origin of the photographs, the defence ministry deleted its tweets. Russia, which entered the conflict in late 2015 on the side of Bashar al-Assad's government, has long accused the west of backing extremist groups in Syria. Jeff Sessions has said there is "not enough basis" to appoint a special counsel to investigate Hillary Clinton, a day after reports surfaced that the attorney general had authorised senior prosecutors at the justice department to evaluate an inquiry into the Clinton Foundation. Sessions pushed back on Donald Trump's repeated insistence that the FBI should focus on investigating Clinton as opposed to potential collusion between his own presidential campaign and Russia. "The Department of Justice can never be used to retaliate politically against opponents. That would be wrong," Sessions said when asked about Trump's tweets calling on the DoJ to investigate his former rival in the 2016 presidential race. "You can have your idea, but sometimes we have to study what the facts are, and to evaluate whether it meets the standards it requires."
Profits for Adani Enterprises Limited – the company behind the proposed Carmichael coal mine – have collapsed almost 50% year-on-year, according to a half-yearly report released this week, which fails to mention the mine. The results confirm the company is in financial distress, according to Tim Buckley from the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. He says the company cannot walk away from the unviable Carmichael project without further damaging its financial position. The inner city battle between Labor and the Greens takes a new turn this weekend as they face off in a byelection for the Victorian state seat of Northcote. Thirty environment groups have joined forces to put pressure on Labor over forest protection, which polling shows motivates a significant number of voters in the seat. Northcote is one of five inner-city Melbourne seats that were previously safe for Labor, but have now become marginal, with two – Melbourne and Prahran – falling to the Greens at the last state election. Sport Australia's World Cup qualification hopes go on the line against Honduras in Sydney tonight. After Saturday's 0-0 draw in the first leg, nothing less than a win will guarantee the Socceroos' place in Russia. Three factors should give Australia the edge; the central Americans' feeble form, Australia's superior preparation and the return of key players from injury and suspension. Follow the Guardian's liveblog of Australia's most crucial game in more than a decade from 7.30pm AEDT. Before Ben Simmons played a single minute of NBA basketball, the comparisons were startling: the young Australian was being talked of as the next LeBron James, Magic Johnson or Oscar Robertson. Twelve games into Simmons' NBA career, being mentioned in the same breath as Hall of Famers does not seem unwarranted, writes Chris De Silva. Thinking time | 
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A giant billboard promoting the yes vote in Sydney's Kings Cross. Photograph: William West/AFP/Getty Images 
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