Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Brexit weekly briefing: article 50 moves closer but EU dashes divorce deal hopes

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: article 50 moves closer but EU dashes divorce deal hopes

MPs vote overwhelmingly to trigger Brexit as Guy Verhofstadt suggests Brussels will not let UK leave ECJ's jurisdiction in 2019

MPs filter back into the House of Commons from the lobby after voting on the article 50 bill.
MPs filter back into the House of Commons from the lobby after voting on the article 50 bill, which was passed by 494 votes to 122. Photograph: AFP/Getty

Jon Henley and Jessica Elgot


Welcome to the Guardian's weekly Brexit briefing, a summary of developments as Britain heads more or less steadily towards the EU door marked "exit". If you'd like to receive it as a weekly early morning email, please sign up here.

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The big picture

Back in November, when the high court handed down its ruling that the government had to consult parliament before it could trigger article 50, hardcore leave campaigners feared MPs would dare "defy the will of the people" and derail the whole Brexit process.

Last week, helped by clever non-concessions (including a promise that parliament will be able to vote on the exit deal before MEPs – but not before it is concluded), the government's Brexit bill sailed through the Commons without a single amendment, approved overwhelmingly by 494 votes to 122.

Considering that the government has a majority of just 16, and on referendum day last June about three-quarters of MPs wanted to remain in the EU, this was an overwhelming victory – and it leaves Theresa May on track to keep her promise of formally beginning Brexit by the end of March.

Two key amendments were defeated. One would have given parliament a "meaningful" vote on the draft divorce deal, and thus the chance to change it before it is concluded. As the Green MP Caroline Lucas said, they may now face something of a Hobson's choice – forced to accept whatever the prime minister comes back with, because the alternative would be even worse:

The vote [the government] is offering gives MPs a choice between an extreme Brexit and falling off a cliff edge into World Trade Organisation trade rules. It isn't a concession – it's an ultimatum.

The other amendment would have given all EU citizens in the UK permanent residency after Britain leaves the EU (although the Liberal Democrats say they are confident of enough cross-party support to get this one through the Lords, where the government's Brexit bill heads next.)

What explains such uncommon parliamentary unanimity? Well, the controversial decision by the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, (see below) to order his MPs to vote with the government was key, plainly – as was the general feeling, summed up by former chancellor George Osborne, that:

To vote against the majority verdict of the largest democratic exercise in British history would risk putting parliament against people, provoking a deep constitutional crisis in our country and alienating people who already feel alienated.

Others, including the former Lib Dem deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, felt it was just as much a reflection of how parliament had been "thoroughly cowed and intimidated" by pro-Brexit hardliners in and outside of government – including the ferocious Eurosceptic press.

Either way, it was a historic moment. Brexit is on its way.

The view from Europe

Guy Verhofstadt seemed to dash a bunch of the UK government's Brexit hopes in an interview with the Guardian. The chief Brexit negotiator for the European parliament – which must approve the divorce deal – said:

  • Britain will remain under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice during any transition deal.
  • It was was "technically not possible" to negotiate a future trade deal in tandem with the article 50 divorce arrangement.
  • EU institutions agree the UK will have to settle its exit bill (reportedly €57bn) before talks on the future relationship, which should only begin during the the transitional period.
  • The EU will not stand for any attempt by London to use Britain's defence and security capabilities as a bargaining chip.
  • MEPs will play a pivotal role in setting the EU's negotiating position and will have a final say on the deal.

On timing, Verhofstadt says the EU is assuming article 50 will be triggered on 9 March. The EU27 plan to meet on 8-9 April to finalise their position, with talks expected to get under way in May.

In an interview with German radio, the EU commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he feared the UK would try its hardest to divide the 27 by making certain offers to some countries, and different ones to others:

Do the Hungarians and the Poles want exactly the same thing as the Germans and the French? I have serious doubts.

Juncker also said he would not be standing for a second term.

Meanwhile, back in Westminster

"Give us everything we want, or we'll give you everything you want," was how one Twitter hack described Labour's strategy over the article 50 vote, when the opposition party backed the bill despite losing all their amendment votes.

After agonising for weeks, the shadow business secretary, Clive Lewis, quit his shadow cabinet job in front of the TV cameras to join the more than 120 MPs who voted against the EU notification (withdrawal) bill – which still passed comfortably.

Corbyn tweeted after the vote that the "real fight starts now", prompting derision from some remain supporters. But with the party facing two testing byelections in the next fortnight, in Stoke and Copeland, where a majority voted to leave, Corbyn's key message is that Labour will not block Brexit.

Labour's candidate in Stoke, Gareth Snell, who posted some embarrassing post-referendum tweets about the Brexit vote, told the Guardian he wanted his party to move the conversation on. "I will not frustrate the will of the people, I will do nothing to slow it down, but it is incumbent upon me to get the best deal that works for the Potteries," he said.

Ukip's message is somewhat simpler. "Labour wants to keep us in the EU," its leaflets say.

Another politician's remain vote is in the spotlight this week, too - John Bercow. Already the subject of a rightwing Tory plot to oust him over his refusal to let the US president, Donald Trump, address parliament, newly revealed video footage showed the Commons Speaker revealing to students that he had voted remain, despite the neutrality required of his post.

It will be a tough job to remove him on that basis, however: Eurosceptic Tories such as former culture secretary John Whittingdale admit that Bercow was such a stickler for giving both sides of the Brexit debate a hearing in the house that Brexiteers had previously assumed he was one of their own.

You should also know ...

Read these:

In the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley marvels at the scale of the government's article 50 bill victory, noting that if MPs' votes had reflected those of the public on referendum day, May's majority would have been not 372, but 26.

Despite being warned by the prime minister that she would pursue "a very stark and high-risk version of Brexit", Rawnsley said, parliament waved the bill through with a "stonking" majority – greatly diminishing itself in the process:

MPs will retain their inalienable rights to comment and question, to carp and moan, to quibble and quarrel. But they have left themselves essentially powerless to influence the outcome of the most important negotiation in Britain's postwar history. They will be allowed to yap. As the juggernaut crashes on.

In the Financial Times (paywall), Martin Wolf marvels at a sentence in the Brexit white paper from earlier this month: "Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that." So what sane country, Wolf wonders, "would sever its ties to its most important trading partners, and its strategic position in its continent's councils, over a feeling that its own government agrees is erroneous?"

Laying out what he sees as the five major challenges to obtaining a Brexit deal, Wolf says that even assuming one is reached, empirical work by the NIESR suggests UK-EU trade could fall by as much as 25% – while agreements with other countries might increase UK trade by just 5%:

The UK has committed itself to becoming 'global Britain'. Getting there successfully will be a big challenge. True, the short-term economic effect has been far less than many supposed. But exit has not yet begun … The prime minister is right that the majority of remainers hope her form of Brexit will work: this is our country, too. Yet most of us still believe that the path on which the UK is launched is deeply against its interests. We must hope we are wrong.

Back in the Guardian, professor of EU law Steve Peers marvels at Gisela Stuart, the leading pro-leave Labour MP who has since been an advocate for the cause of EU migrants in the UK, chairing a British Future inquiry that called on the government to unilaterally guarantee their rights.

But Stuart "bottled it" in the parliamentary vote on the amendment to the government's Brexit bill that asked for precisely that, Peers said, voting against the very policy she agreed to advocate:

If there's one thing people don't like about politics, it's two-faced politicians. MPs who support a policy should simply vote in favour of it, not against it. There's still time for Stuart to do the right thing. Hopefully, the House of Lords will insist on an amendment on this issue, giving her the chance to execute a graceful U-turn. If not, there's that future bill some day.

Tweet of the week

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon responds to Jeremy Corbyn's assertion that "the real fight" over Brexit starts now:

How? You've just handed the Tories a blank cheque. You didn't win a single concession but still voted for the Bill. Pathetic. https://t.co/kDje2GLAey

— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) February 8, 2017

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