Showing posts with label Brexit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brexit. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Brexit weekly briefing: Boris Johnson launches customs union broadside

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: Boris Johnson launches customs union broadside

Brexit cheerleader fights back as May's cabinet continues to grapple with customs partnership v 'max fac'
The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson
The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, has openly criticised Theresa May's preferred 'customs partnership' as 'crazy'. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

Jon Henley European affairs correspondent


Welcome to the Guardian's weekly Brexit briefing. If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means … podcast right here.
Also, producing the Guardian's independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters and it may be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian supporter. Thank you.

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It was all about the customs union again as Theresa May's cabinet continued to tear itself apart over how best to limit the damage to the UK economy from leaving the EU while at the same time keeping the government's Brexit promise to voters.
The new home secretary, Sajid Javid, joined the Brexiters Liam Fox, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove on the cabinet's key Brexit subcommittee in rejecting the prime minister's favoured "customs partnership" as a) unworkable and b) keeping the UK closer to the EU than they would like.
Davis later told parliament that both that plan, under which the UK would collect import duties on behalf of the EU, and its more technology-focused alternative, known as maximum facilitation or "max fac", were still on the table (although the EU27, of course, have already ruled both out).
May, who professed her "absolute determination" to make a success of leaving, sees the partnership as the only way to deliver on the Brexit she has pledged – a point underlined by moderate Tories led by the business secretary Greg Clark, who warned of thousands of jobs at risk unless frictionless trade was maintained.
With the prime minister under mounting pressure from both sides, the customs partnership plan temporarily withdrawn for "more work", and European Economic Area (EEA) membership now reappearing via a string of cross-party amendments in the Lords, Johnson has fought back hard, openly criticising his leader's "totally untried" and "crazy" preferred option:
It's not taking back control of your trade policy, it's not taking back control of your laws, it's not taking back control of your borders and it's actually not taking back control of your money either.

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In the Guardian, Rafael Behr predicts the final Brexit agreement will be a mess that its cheerleaders will eventually abandon:
There is a mismatch between leave culture, which thrives on heroic simplifications, and leaving in practice, which is a labyrinth of unheroic complications. The deeper into the maze May plunges, the harder it gets for those who campaigned with promises of a swift and easy escape to express sincere satisfaction with the final product. Many Tories will decide that any Brexit is better than none. They will murmur their assent to May's deal and, once Britain has been bundled out of the EU, agitate for new leadership. They will not reject May's Brexit, but nor will they rush to own it, because none of the advertised benefits of leaving the EU will materialise. The remainer tribe isn't going to renounce its metropolitan mores just because the cause of remaining in the EU is lost. And the leaver tribe, upon leaving, will cling to grievances that were channelled against Brussels but not caused there. Neither side will cherish May's messy deal and, because it will be unloved in the country, few MPs will have much incentive to defend it. Brexit is the adopted child of a whole generation of politicians. It will be an orphan one day.
In the Independent, Matthew Bevington and Anand Menon argue that the cabinet's battle over the customs union is an insult to our intelligence:
The current debate about customs arrangements is not fit for purpose. Neither of the alternatives that were discussed in the Brexit cabinet committee last Wednesday is practical … Moreover, regardless of their technical, temporal or political practicality, the kinds of arrangement being mooted by the government depend on a significant amount of trust between the parties. This, to say the least, is in short supply. It undermines the UK's credibility to continue promoting obviously unworkable solutions and damages goodwill in the negotiations. The government's continued insistence that a trade deal will be completed by October – an absolute impossibility – is another instance of it insulting the intelligence of anyone taking the negotiations seriously. And the EU is even less likely to do so as the British government is currently up in front of the European court of justice charged with failing to crack down on customs fraud by Chinese clothing importers. Almost two years after the referendum, we do not know what we want, the ideas we have suggested are unacceptable not only to the EU but to half the cabinet and a large number of MPs, and we still are not even talking about potential outcomes that are practically possible. This is a farce, but could easily turn into a tragedy.

Top tweet

A moderate Conservative speaks:
Many of us want this holding to ransom of The PM and the pragmatic centre of the Party and Public opinion by ERG and it's supporters including @Jacob_Rees_Mogg to end ,and for the best Brexit for U.K. to be negotiated #itsgottostop
— Nicholas Soames (@NSoames) May 6, 2018
Guardian News & Media Limited - a member of Guardian Media Group PLC. Registered Office: Kings Place, 90 York Way, London, N1 9GU. Registered in England No. 908396

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

The Guardian today: PM expected to delay customs decision to appease key Brexiters

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Brexit weekly briefing: crunch time on customs union approaches

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: crunch time on customs union approaches

With cabinet division, Lords defeats, a fresh warning from Michel Barnier and a ministerial departure, Brexit is not getting any easier

Theresa May
The days when Theresa May could muddle through Brexit, keeping her party's hard Brexiters and unreconciled remainers together, are fast running out, according to Andrew Rawnsley. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/PA

Jon Henley European affairs correspondent


Welcome to the Guardian's weekly Brexit briefing. If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means … podcast right here.

Also, producing the Guardian's independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters and it may be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian Supporter. Thank you.

Top stories

It's too early to say, of course, how the week's big domestic news – the resignation of Amber Rudd over an uncontainable immigration scandal and her replacement as home secretary by Sajid Javid – will affect the ongoing Brexit talks.

On paper at least, Theresa May has maintained the crucial balance on the cabinet's key 11-member Brexit subcommittee: five pro, five anti, and the prime minister herself with the casting vote. But that may not be the whole story.

Javid is a more reluctant remainer than Rudd, and does not wield the same clout. We do not know whether he will adopt a more pro-business immigration stance after Brexit, or – perhaps more significantly – whether Rudd, a committed pro-European, will join the ranks of Tory backbench rebels in upcoming Brexit votes.

We may get an inkling of some of the above at a crucial subcommittee meeting this week to discuss the so-called "customs partnership" with the EU that May hopes will solve some of her Brexit problems – but that cabinet Brexiters detest.

Government divisions over the partnership plan were laid bare when David Davis reportedly threatened to resign unless May sidelined Olly Robbins, the top Brexit civil servant (whose idea it is). The Brexit secretary subsequently denied the story.

Underlining the impression that crunch time is approaching on the customs union, the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned that talks were at risk of collapse if the UK did not soften its red lines and deliver fresh thinking on the Irish border.

And there was yet another heavy Lords defeat, on a potentially highly significant amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that could pave the way for parliament to send ministers back to Brussels to renegotiate if MPs vote down the withdrawal deal in the autumn.

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In The Observer, Andrew Rawnsley argues that the days when Theresa May could muddle through Brexit, keeping her party's hard Brexiters and unreconciled remainers together, are fast running out:

The hard Brexiters are clearly fearful that Britain will end up in a customs union, or something very similar by a slightly different name. So they are trying to put a gun to the prime minister's head by predicting that it will trigger cabinet resignations, which I am pretty sure it would, and a full-scale Tory civil war, which would blow away her premiership. They menace her with a confidence vote in her leadership … which would not necessarily remove her as prime minister, but is not a prospect she wants to face, which is why they make the threat. May has not found an answer to this crunch other than to try to delay it. The government has stalled a chunk of the withdrawal legislation to try to swerve the moment of truth, but it won't be able to duck a binding vote for ever. The great rupture of the Tory party over Brexit cannot be avoided indefinitely. What might look to some like cunning cleverness is, on closer inspection, really an exercise in trying to postpone the inevitable while desperately hoping that something will turn up.

And in the Guardian, Marina Hyde says David Davis excels in a "government of all the talentless", and even the Brexit secretary's allies are worried – but he's safe, because his colleagues are even worse:

It's long been traditional to describe a lazy performance by an actor as phoned in. In the case of DExEu's David Davis, however, he doesn't even text it in. The secretary of state's performance in front of the Brexit select committee this week basically amounted to a series of emoticons. He can't do you an explanation of how in the name of magical thinking the government can square its promises on the Irish border with promises on leaving the customs union – but he can do you the shrug. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Did you miss it? Don't worry. Just ask him another question and he'll do it again … The cabinet is now cobbled together from two sides of the referendum divide, each of whom accused the other of the most despicable lies during the campaign. Ever since, preposterously, they have expected the public to accept that they are telling the truth when they act together. How is this supposed to work? … What will eventually unite many leave and remain voters, one suspects, is the enraged conviction that the politicians should have known what they were doing with Brexit, and rather sooner than this.

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A warm European welcome for the new home secretary:

New Home Sec Javid gets a letter from EP Brexit Steering Group Chair Verhofstadt saying EU citizens have "a great deal of concern and anxiety" following Windrush crisis urging him to go to great lengths to reassure Windrush "not repeated on EU citizens" pic.twitter.com/U8jxMODho6

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) April 30, 2018
Guardian News & Media Limited - a member of Guardian Media Group PLC. Registered Office: Kings Place, 90 York Way, London, N1 9GU. Registered in England No. 908396

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Brexit weekly briefing: customs union fast becoming the big issue

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: customs union fast becoming the big issue

The government suffers a series of humiliating defeats in the House of Lords

Lord Fowler
Lord Fowler announces the results of the vote on the customs union in the House of Lords. Photograph: PA

Jon Henley


Welcome to the Guardian's weekly Brexit briefing. If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means … podcast right here.

Also, producing the Guardian's independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters and it may be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian Supporter. Thank you.

Top news

To stay or not to stay in the customs union? (And if you're not sure what the it is and why it matters, here's a handy guide.) That's fast becoming the question after the government suffered humiliating defeats in the Lords.

Most notably, and with the support of 24 Tories including three ex-ministers, peers convincingly backed an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill that would force the government to explain what it had done to pursue remaining in a union.

Theresa May came under heavy pressure to reopen the question of Britain's membership of a customs union, which has been one of the government's red lines since her Lancaster House speech in January last year.

Ministers braced themselves for a crunch early Commons vote on the same issue this week after 10 select committee chairs – including Conservatives – tabled a motion urging the government to "include as an objective in negotiations … the establishment of an effective customs union".

Amid rumours that the prime minister was ready to agree to staying in , pro-Brexiters lined up to warn darkly against a betrayal that they said would precipitate a political crisis, Downing Street was forced to rule out any U-turn.

Unfortunately, business would like a customs union. So would Labour, the Irish government (because it would help solve that pesky border problem) and the EU, which again rejected the UK's Irish border proposals – and added that Brexit talks could still fail. So, Theresa: no pressure.

In other news, the government on Monday suffered its third Brexit defeat in the Lords in less than a week (on excluding EU rights from national law), and talks on the future relationship between the EU and UK finally got under way, somewhat unspectacularly.

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In the Guardian, Rafael Behr argues that May is chasing a fantasist's Brexit and must change course now to seek a sensible compromise – no one will be totally happy, but a brave prime minister would do what was right:

May is no grandmaster. The customs union trap was not hard to spot. To the EU she promised an invisible Irish border, and to Tory backbenchers she pledged freedom to diverge from European regulation. Those two things contradict one another. But May's blunder was earlier, when she chose not to engage with the hidden complexities of a project made to look easy by the binary referendum question. She did not accept that there were ways to leave the EU other than the hardest. She might have considered staying in the single market, the European Economic Area or the European Free Trade Association. Those are bona fide Brexits, but better calibrated to the 52:48 people's ratio. Instead May was persuaded that democracy demanded a formula closer to 100:0. That is the least stable compound of all … May faced a choice between a fantasy Brexit, designed only to gratify a minority who are immune to gratification, and real Brexits that require compromise on every side. It wasn't an appealing decision, but nor was it a hard one. Still she chose poorly. It wouldn't be easy for her to change course now. But nor is it too late.

In the FT (paywall), Gideon Rachman wonders whether Brexit could yet be stopped over the customs union question, which is so critical because it marks the frontier between a "hard" and a "soft" deal:

Some British officials surmise that the prime minister may even secretly want the Commons to vote for a customs union. Their argument is that Mrs May knows that a customs union makes sense, but that she cannot currently argue for this option for fear of provoking a rebellion by Tory Leavers. On the other hand, if the prime minister's hand were forced by a parliamentary vote, she could "reluctantly" embrace a customs union. The danger with this Machiavellian strategy, however, is that it could backfire. Losing British sovereignty over trade policy might be a concession too far for Tory Leavers. Leading ministers such as Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, and Liam Fox, the trade secretary, are thought to be ready to resign over the issue. That could trigger a leadership challenge to Mrs May, and the fall of the government. It is this situation that led one leading British political analyst to predict to me recently that Brexit will not happen because "there is no version of Brexit that can get a parliamentary majority". My own conclusion is that nobody really knows. There are just too many uncertainties.

Top tweet

When the Liverpool manager weighs in on Brexit, and not in a bad way:

"There is not one time in history where division creates success... Let's think about [Brexit] again and let's vote with the right information."

Well said, Jurgen Klopp. #PeoplesVotehttps://t.co/YxykDbjNB1

— Francis Grove-White (@f_grovewhite) April 23, 2018
Guardian News & Media Limited - a member of Guardian Media Group PLC. Registered Office: Kings Place, 90 York Way, London, N1 9GU. Registered in England No. 908396