Welcome to the Guardian's weekly Brexit briefing, a summary of developments as the UK gallops towards the EU door marked "exit". If you'd like to receive it as a weekly early morning email, please sign up here.
You can listen to our latest Brexit Means … podcast, updated every Wednesday, here. And with the general election under way in the UK, you can also sign up to the Snap, our daily email election briefing, here.
Also: producing the Guardian's independent, in-depth journalism takes a lot of time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters – and it may well be your perspective too. If you value our Brexit coverage, become a Guardian Supporter and help make our future more secure. Thank you. The big picture It was a busy week. The account leaked to a German newspaper of that disastrous dinner hosted by Theresa May for Jean-Claude Juncker and his crew sparked a most unseemly war of words between Brussels and London. In a combative address from the steps of No 10, the prime minister launched what the Guardian called "an extraordinary attack" on Brussels, accusing EU politicians and officials of meddling in the UK's election and willing Brexit to fail: The European commission's negotiating stance has hardened. Threats against Britain have been issued. All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the result of the general election. Lots of people said this was rubbish and all about May courting Ukip votes. Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, who was at the dinner, admitted there had been a clash but said the outcome of the election was actually irrelevant to the EU: It will not change anything as regarding the position and determination of the European Union. Without any aggressiveness or naivety, we will defend the interests of the 27 and the single market. Donald Tusk, the European council president, called for everyone to calm down, saying Brexit talks would fail before they even began if emotions continued to run wild and appearing to criticise Juncker's team for the leak: These negotiations are difficult enough as they are. The stakes are too high to let our emotions get out of hand. We need today discretion, moderation, mutual respect and a maximum of goodwill. Then everyone's attention switched to France. The view from Europe To the immense relief of European capitals including – despite Brexit ultras' claims to the contrary – London, the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron swept to victory in the French presidential election. This is a big deal for the EU because Macron campaigned on a passionately pro-European platform (when he walked to the stage for his victory speech, he did so to the strains of the European Union anthem, Beethoven's Ode to Joy.) His victory leaves the EU feeling more optimistic than in a long time, particularly since his Eurosceptic opponent, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, wanted to pull France out of the euro and hold a referendum on its membership. For the Brexit process, the consequences are mixed but generally positive. Macron, who called Brexit a "crime" in his manifesto, will be tough – but no tougher than the stance of his predecessor, François Hollande, which is that of the EU27. So he will put EU unity and single market integrity first. But unlike Le Pen, whose victory would have plunged the EU into a crisis so catastrophic that any kind of Brexit deal would have been an achievement, he is a known quantity. Macron represents continuity, stability and consistency, which with negotiations as fierce as these are likely to be appreciable assets. And who knows, the injection of confidence he has given the EU may even allow it to be a little more flexible. Meanwhile, back in Westminster Politically, there is no more Westminster for a while – parliament was formally dissolved as of last Wednesday meaning there are, officially, also no more MPs, just candidates, until the early hours of 9 June. Some strong clues to what will happen in the election came in local and mayoral polls across England, Scotland and Wales on Thursday, when the Conservatives recorded the best such vote performance for a governing party for 40 or so years. Theresa May's party gained more than 550 council seats and won the mayoral races in the West Midlands and Tees Valley, areas Labour would usually see as its heartlands. Labour lost more than 300 seats, pointing to a potentially tricky general election for Jeremy Corbyn and his candidates. But the biggest change, and one which seems directly related to Brexit, was the evaporation of Ukip. The pro-Brexit vanguards shed 114 councillors net, and in fact returned only a single councillor, in Lancashire. This seemed to bear out the prediction that many among the close to 4 million people who voted Ukip in 2015 will switch to May as a means of securing Brexit – this has been conceded by some within Ukip. Otherwise it's been policy announcements, battle buses, and arguments over TV debates. Beyond May's one-woman war against the European commission, the actual technicalities of Brexit look likely to be ignored until some time after June. You should also know … - EU immigration is "likely to continue for some years" after Brexit, a Whitehall thinktank said.
- The "legislative tsunami" of Brexit may cost MPs and peers the power to pass laws, a former judge said.
- Lord Kerr, who helped draft article 50, said uncertainty over the way Brexit talks would go "leaves a 45% chance of no deal".
- Juncker, said the English language was "losing its importance in Europe".
- Peter Hargreaves, the biggest donor to the Brexit campaign, called on May to unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU nationals in Britain.
- The health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, said a bad Brexit deal would be a disaster for the NHS and accused some in EU27 of wanting negotiations to fail.
- Nigel Farage said Ukip could be defunct as a political force by the time Brexit is delivered ifa May reaches a deal that suits its supporters.
- A Dutchwoman denied permanent residency despite living in the UK for 24 years has been given British citizenship.
- Financial services firms in the City said they were preparing for a hard Brexit but would not be ready for it in two years.
- A Reuters survey found City banks could move at least 9,000 jobs from the UK due to Brexit, with Frankfurt and Dublin the biggest winners.
- UK employers are struggling to fill vacancies after a sharp drop in available candidates, with more difficulties seen ahead as Brexit bites.
Read these: In the Guardian, Natalie Nougayrède argues that Macron's victory march to the European anthem spoke volumes, he campaigned against narrow nationalism, and that's why his win matters for the EU: Anyone doubtful about the meaning of Macron's victory should really reflect on what the world would look like if he'd been defeated on Sunday. French voters have stalled the national populist wave, and surely that's not just a source of relief. Like beautiful music, it sends a universal message. In the New Statesman, Helen Lewis pens a brilliant faux reportage pillorying the way the foreign media went in search of Marine Le Pen voters and asking just why so many French people voted for Emmanuel Macron – was it a lack of economic anxiety, or a lack of racism? Antoine takes up the tale. "The thing is, the political class don't listen to people like us. People call us extremists, but we just want someone who will make sure that the lights stay on and not do something stupid, like take us out of the European Union. Beyond that …", he shrugs, "I am relatively happy. This is a great time to be alive, isn't it? I still have all my teeth. There is no war." Jonathan Freedland argues in the Guardian that May's hardline posturing towards Brussels may bring her domestic election success – but will also unite the EU27 in a desire to punish the UK: May might get good headlines out of this standoff, but the reality will soon become clear. As the novelist Robert Harris so rightly noted, for centuries British foreign policy has had a key goal: to avoid 'Europe becoming a single bloc united against us'. Yet that's exactly what's now happened. At the weekend, the EU27 took just four minutes to approve their common stance against the UK. Their unity is total. So May can enjoy posing as a 'bloody difficult woman' and it may well bring her success on 8 June. But after that she will enter a process so complex and so damaging, that 'bloody difficult' will be putting it mildly. Tweet of the week Hat tip Ciaran O'Driscoll. (If you have a candidate for Tweet of the Week, please do let me know @jonhenley ...) | 
Posts
Theresa May speaking outside Downing Street. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images 
No comments:
Post a Comment