Good morning, this is Eleanor Ainge Roy bringing you the main stories and must-reads on Friday 27 October. Top stories All eyes will be on the high court when the citizenship ruling is handed down at 2.15pm today, determining the political fate of three senior government ministers and the One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts. Altogether the court is ruling on the eligibility of seven MPs who were elected in 2016 when they were dual citizens; three of those have stepped down or, in the case of Senator Nick Xenophon, intend to. The "citizenship seven" are: the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce; the deputy Nationals leader, Fiona Nash; the former resources and Northern Australia minister Matt Canavan; Roberts; Xenophon; and the former Greens senators Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam. Joyce will face a byelection in New England if found ineligible, while senators will be replaced by a recount likely to return the next candidate on their parties' 2016 Senate ticket. If Joyce is found ineligible, the government will have 75 lower house seats, making it more likely to lose house votes unless it retains Joyce's seat against a likely run by the former independent MP Tony Windsor. Win or lose, the court decision will cap off a rugged week for the government. The employment minister, Michaelia Cash, on Thursday survived a sustained political assault from Labor. The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, was forced to defend her after it was revealed a member of her staff tipped off the media before controversial AFP raids on Australian Workers' Union headquarters in Sydney and Melbourne on Tuesday. Coastal cities around the world could be devastated by 1.3 metres of sea level rise unless coal-generated electricity is virtually eliminated by 2050. A research paper combines the latest understanding of Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise and the latest emissions projection scenarios and confirms again that significant sea level rise is inevitable and requires rapid adaptation. But, on a more hopeful note, it finds that keeping to the Paris agreement of holding global warming "well below 2C" will avoid the worst rises. Researchers found that if not – seas could rise 50% more than was previously thought. But an extra contribution from Antarctica would not kick in if warming was kept at less than 1.9C above preindustrial levels. The US ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown, is facing more complaints of misconduct and inappropriate behaviour at a party in Samoa. Brown admitted this week he had been the subject of a state department investigation, which admonished him for his lack of cultural sensitivity. But the Guardian has learnt of further and more serious complaints against Brown, including staring at a women's breasts, shouting at guests and behaving in ways that were "shocking", "culturally insensitive", "rude" and "undiplomatic". One woman told the Guardian that Brown allegedly stared at her body when she was introduced to him. "The first time I met him, he looked at my chest immediately." She alleged that another female colleague had a similar experience. "I felt immediately uncomfortable and it didn't feel right," she said. Josh Frydenberg says the Turnbull government will pursue further emissions reductions in other parts of the economy as part of meeting the Paris target. And the energy and environment minister is confident the states will sign up to the national energy guarantee despite some strident criticism from premiers. In an interview with the Australian Politics Live podcast – available later this morning – Frydenberg said he expected state governments would act in the national interest when they meet in November, and consider the national energy guarantee proposal on its merits. "We are not expecting them to say no." Not only did the federal government pay almost double to buy back water entitlements for environmental flows from one farm, as Anne Davies reported yesterday, it may have paid for "ghost flows". The water rights associated with the property, Tandou near Broken Hill, have become increasingly unreliable owing to upstream extractions. The purchase price – $78m – was calculated on the basis that Tandou had access to 100% of its water entitlement all the time. But the department's own reports showed Tandou had been unable to plant crops in five of the past 14 years because of a lack of water in the region. "Reliability of water must be a key criteria in water purchases, otherwise we are just throwing good money away," Senator Nick Xenophon said. Sport Australia has crushed England in the second ODI to take command of Women's Ashes. Australia Women were 296-6, with England Women 209 all out. Australia now lead the series 4-0 after a thrilling match that left the world champions in disarray. The W-League season is kicking off amid much hype. After a big 2017 with significant wins against Japan and Brazil, the question now is how can the support for the Matildas be converted into support for the domestic league? The Rugby League World Cup gets under way this evening in Melbourne, where the hosts Australia face England. Follow the game with our live blog from 7.30pm, kick-off is at 8pm. Thinking time | 
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The deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, will find out whether he is eligible to sit in parliament. Joyce, who was born in Australia, gained dual-citizenship by descent from his New Zealand father. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian 
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