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Space as the new political battleground
A space corps in the U.S. military may or may not happen. But the proposal now being debated on Capitol Hill certainly has catapulted space into the political conversation.
The House soon will begin negotiations with the Senate on the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act. The House version creates a military branch dedicated to space that is separate from the Air Force.
The Pentagon has pushed back on the reorganization but has promised to move the issue of "space superiority" to the front burner. Undersecretary of Defense for acquisition Ellen Lord shared some inside baseball last week: The space corps issue has sparked a "very vibrant dialog" with Congress. "The leadership in the building is taking this very seriously." The Pentagon is "looking at the gaps we have in our space architecture, how we fill the capability and what is the best way to do that."
Across the Defense Department, "We're all in the process of rationalizing what we have in space, looking across the services and making sure we are looking at space as a domain, that all services play smartly and in a complementary way."
Pentagon, are you ready for a space war? In its new " Index of Military Strength," the Heritage Foundation included a long section on space. I spoke with the author, senior fellow Dean Cheng. His central point: The United States takes its dominance of space for granted, and needs to not do that. "Because our adversaries haven't gone after us in this regard, we have gotten used to space superiority. We need to face the reality that if we are in a great power competition,even limited hybrid conflict could entail interference with our space infrastructure." That would have serious implications for military operations and for the civilian economy. In a future war, Cheng warns, "both the outer space and information space domains will be central battlefields, and operations there will have as much impact as traditional activities in the air, on land and at sea have had." GPS satellites will be prized targets
Cheng predicts GPS satellites will come increasingly under threat. Their billion-dollar price tags and their value to modern society make them attractive targets.
The United States needs to consider alternatives, he says. "It might be worth looking into this." For instance, a team of researchers at the University of California, Riverside, has developed a navigation system that exploits signals such as cellular and Wi-Fi, rather than GPS. The technology can be used as a standalone alternative to GPS, or complement current GPS-based systems.
Next-gen GPS could launch next year
The U.S. Air Force last week declared the first Lockheed Martin-built GPS 3 satellite "available for launch." The expected launch is sometime in 2018. This has been a troubled program for years but appears to be turning around.
Lockheed spokesman Chip Eschenfelder tells me the company is enthusiastic about the progress. It has an Air Force contract to manufacture 10 GPS 3 space vehicles. The second one is moving along. "It's fully integrated, passed its acoustics test and is going through thermal vacuum testing." The third one is being built as well, and is progressing towards acoustics testing. Vehicles 4 and 5 are in the "system module build-up stage" and No. 6 will begin production in early 2018.
Security has become a central issue amid growing fears of electronic attacks. The Air Force requires "regional military protection" for GPS 3 beyond vehicle No. 11. Eschenfelder: "We intentionally developed our GPS 3 satellite with a flexible, modular design to incorporate new technology as it becomes available and to anticipate changing mission needs like this."
Industry buzz: More mergers? If the Pentagon gives the go-ahead to the acquisition of Orbital ATK by Northrop Grumman, will the floodgates open for more industry consolidation? "Other things are moving and grooving," Robert Stallard, aerospace industry analyst at Vertical Research Partners told investors in a conference call Friday. It's one of the big unknowns about the Trump administration: Will it stick with the Obama and George W. Bush policies that competition in the defense industry must be maintained? "We don't know if that is changing," Stallard said. Pentagon acquisition chief Ellen Lord said the issue is under review but offered no clues. Northrop Grumman's takeover of Orbital will be a "real test case for the administration." But more acquisitions by the big defense primes are inevitable given their financial firepower and the state of the industry, Stallard points out. Over the last six to eight months, companies have shown a desire to make deals, as opposed to continuing to return excess cash to shareholders. In Northrop Grumman's case, it was buying back its stock for 12 to 13 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes,depreciation and amortization), which is "very similar to what they seem to be paying for Orbital ATK." Engrossing thought: Will GD buy Harris?
Speculation has swirled around the industry for a while. Stallard: General Dynamics has a lot of cash. And Harris Corp. is one of the few remaining mid-cap, pure-play defense companies focused on defense electronics and space.
Strategically it does make some sense. But financially it doesn't, at least not now. Harris at this moment is too expensive. GD executives have publicly commented about "not doing dumb deals." Things could change if Harris' price drops.
Another tantalizing deal: Boeing's defense and space business buying Northrop Grumman. "There would be issues," Stallard said. Boeing may have to spin off some sectors of the company to maintain competition in military-critical product areas.
A big test for DoD, for sure. This merger would bring the number of aircraft primes from three down to two. Stallard: "It's a great deal for Boeing." It would give the company access to Northrop's B-21 bomber and F-35 programs, both of which it lost. And Northrop shareholders would cash in … big. "I can't predict what the Trump administration would say."
Thanks for reading the premiere issue of SN military.space. We'll see you back here every Tuesday,
— Sandra Erwin, SpaceNews
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