Friday, December 22, 2017

ONS releases - Monthly economic commentary, Balance of payments for the UK, UK index of services, UK quarterly national accounts...

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22 December 2017

Economy

Monthly economic commentary: December 2017

The UK economy grew by 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, unrevised from the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP).
For the first time, Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data are used in the measurement of GDP, although the revisions from using this much larger and more comprehensive data source are small.
Growth in household consumption was revised down to 0.5% in Quarter 3 2017, following growth of 0.2% in Quarter 2 2017.
The households saving ratio fell from 5.6% to 5.2% in Quarter 3 2017, while the current account deficit narrowed from 5.1% to 4.5% of GDP.
Growth in consumer prices including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) remained unchanged at 2.8% in November 2017, while growth in the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.1%.
The UK unemployment rate was 4.3% in the three months to October 2017, the joint lowest unemployment rate since 1975.

Balance of payments for the UK: July to Sept 2017

The UK's current account deficit was £22.8 billion (4.5% of gross domestic product) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, a narrowing of £3.0 billion from a revised deficit of £25.8 billion (5.1% of gross domestic product) in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017.
The narrowing in the current account deficit was driven by a narrowing of the deficits on primary income by £1.8 billion, secondary income by £1.0 billion and total trade by £0.3 billion in Quarter 3 2017.
The primary income deficit narrowed to £11.4 billion in Quarter 3 2017, mostly due to UK earnings on investment abroad, which increased by £3.6 billion, partially offset by payments increasing by £1.8 billion.
The international investment position shows UK net liabilities of £207.6 billion at the end of Quarter 3 2017.

UK index of services: Oct 2017

This is the first Index of Services release to incorporate Value Added Tax (VAT), using data from 469,440 businesses across 35 industries.
In the three months to October 2017, services output increased by 0.3% compared with the three months ending July 2017.
Retail trade made the largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth, contributing 0.06 percentage points.
The Index of Services increased by 0.2% between September and October 2017.
Employment activities, wholesale trade and owned or leased real estate made the largest contributions at industry level to the month-on-month increase, each contributing 0.04 percentage points.
In the three months to October 2017, services output increased by 1.3% compared with the three months ending October 2016; this growth is at its lowest since the three months ending October 2013.
This release contains revisions from January 2016.

UK quarterly sector accounts: July to September 2017

Real household disposable income quarter on previous quarter growth was 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017 as a result of an increase in wages and salaries, partially offset by the rise in prices experienced by households.
Real household disposable income growth in 2016 has been revised down to flat from 0.1%, as previously published.
The saving ratio fell to 5.2% in Quarter 3 2017, due mainly to the growth in households' spending exceeding the growth in households' income.
In the non-financial account, the net borrowing position of households increased in the latest quarter. Households have now been net borrowers for four successive quarters for the first time since records began in 1987.
In the non-financial account, the net borrowing position for private non-financial corporations, financial corporations and central government decreased in Quarter 3 2017.
Mortgages held by households (that is the level of long term loans secured on dwellings) in Quarter 3 2017 grew at their slowest quarter on previous quarter rate since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2013.

UK quarterly national accounts: July to September 2017

UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, unrevised from the second estimate of GDP.
Services remained the strongest contributor to growth in the output approach to GDP in Quarter 3 2017, with production also providing a positive contribution.
Household spending grew by 0.5% in Quarter 3 2017, providing the strongest contribution to the expenditure approach to GDP; while growth has increased compared with the first two quarters of 2017, the underlying story is one of a slowdown in growth of household spending, with quarter on same quarter a year ago growth at 1.0%, the lowest rate since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012.
This GDP release includes annual benchmarks for 2016 and the incorporation for the first time of administrative VAT turnover to estimate the output of small businesses, the latter an important step in the transformation of the data sources used in economic statistics.
More broadly, the profile of GDP between Quarter 1 2016 and Quarter 3 2017 is little changed compared with earlier estimates; the most notable feature was the economy performed slightly stronger than previously estimated in the second half of 2016 leading to GDP growth in 2016 being revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9%.
GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.2% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2017.

UK economic accounts: July to September 2017

Provides detailed estimates of national product, income and expenditure, UK sector accounts and UK balance of payments.

Consumer trends, UK : July to September 2017

Unless otherwise stated all figures are chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted.
In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, household spending (adjusted for inflation) grew by 0.5% compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017.
The main contribution to growth can be seen in housing, which has increased by 0.8% compared with Quarter 2 2017.
Household spending grew 1.0% in Quarter 3 2017, when compared with Quarter 3 2016.
In Quarter 3 2017, current price spending increased by 0.8% compared with Quarter 2 2017.

VAT turnover implementation into national accounts: December 2017 update

Business investment in the UK, July to September 2017 revised results

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in volume terms, was estimated to have increased by 0.3% to £82.3 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017 from £82.1 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017.
Business investment was estimated to have increased by 0.5% to £45.9 billion in Quarter 3 2017 from £45.6 billion in Quarter 2 2017.
Between Quarter 3 2016 and Quarter 3 2017, GFCF was estimated to have increased by 2.4% from £80.4 billion; business investment was estimated to have increased by 1.7% from £45.1 billion.
The assets that contributed to the 0.3% GFCF increase between Quarter 2 2017 and Quarter 3 2017 were dwellings, intellectual property products, and other buildings and structures and transfer costs.
The sectors that contributed to GFCF growth over the same period were private sector dwellings and business investment.

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