Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Brexit weekly briefing: Irish border question becomes big obstacle

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: Irish border question becomes big obstacle

Deadlock as UK says issue can be settled only as part of trade deal, but EU says border problem must be solved first

A protest outside Stormont against Brexit
A anti-Brexit protest outside Stormont. Dublin has EU27 backing for its position that Ireland will not accept a hard border with Northern Ireland. Photograph: Charles McQuillan/Getty

Jon Henley and Peter Walker


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The big picture

The seemingly intractable question of the Irish border is now looking like the biggest single obstacle to Britain obtaining the "sufficient progress" verdict it so desperately wants from the EU27 at their mid-December summit.

The trade secretary, Liam Fox, insisted on Sunday that the issue could be settled only as part of an agreement with the EU on future trade, a stance that – since the EU insists it must be settled before trade talks can even begin – risks leaving the Brexit process stymied:

We don't want there to be a hard border, but the UK is going to be leaving the customs union and the single market.

Meanwhile, the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar – who could face early elections over an unrelated corruption scandal – in effect holds a veto on whether the divorce talks can move on to discuss trade after the 15 December summit.

Dublin has full EU27 backing for its position that the Republic will not accept a hard border with Northern Ireland, and it expects the UK to come up with concrete and workable proposals as to how that can be achieved. The problem is that Britain's determination to quit the single market and customs union means some kind of controlled frontier is inevitable, either north-south (if Northern Ireland leaves the customs union too) or in the Irish Sea (if it doesn't).

Complicating matters further is the fact that Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionists have said they will never accept any sort of special customs union status that would "decouple" the region from the rest of the UK – and the party's MPs keep Theresa May in power.

DUP attacks on Varadkar as "unhelpful and obstructive", and the perceived arrogance of many British politicians and media commentators in insisting Ireland should stop worrying and trust London, are also not helping.

Ireland's EU commissioner, Phil Hogan, told the Observer that staying in the customs union would solve the problem. Hogan also said British politicians "simply have not understood" that the best possible EU free trade deal would be nowhere near as good as single market membership.

Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain's former EU ambassador, echoed that view, warning that the government's strategy was an accident waiting to happen, largely because of its unrealistic insistence on winning a bespoke trade deal:

The internal market is an extraordinarily complex international law construct that simply doesn't work in a way that permits the type of options that the current government is pushing for.

The view from Europe

The Irish border question plainly was looming large in the mind of the European council president, Donald Tusk, when he said Theresa May still faced a "huge challenge" in persuading the EU to move the Brexit negotiations on.

After meeting the prime minister in Brussels, ahead of a key dinner – and effective final deadline for sufficient progress to be made – between May and the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, on 4 December, Tusk tweeted:

Sufficient progress in #Brexit talks at December #EUCO is possible. But still a huge challenge.
We need to see progress from UK within 10 days on all issues, including on Ireland. pic.twitter.com/NKe86zGo17

— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) November 24, 2017

A confidential (and perhaps strategically leaked) report by the Irish government on the UK government's management of the Brexit process, based on recent meetings with officials in various European capitals, painted a damning picture.

The unflattering verdicts on David Davis, Boris Johnson and their colleagues and staff, as well as on the British approach in general, included "unimpressive", "surprising", "chaotic", "incoherent" and "very negative".

The commission also ruffled British feathers by confirming that no UK city could be European capital of culture in 2023 after Brexit. Dundee, Leeds, Milton Keynes, Nottingham and (jointly) Belfast, Derry and Strabane were bidding, but only countries in the EU or EEA, or in the process of joining, are deemed eligible.

Meanwhile, back in Westminster

The political week in Westminster was dominated by one event: Wednesday's budget, and the central question of whether the chancellor, Philip Hammond, could survive in the job if anything went wrong.

After April's budget – because of timetabling changes, 2017 has been blessed with two budgets – Hammond's key policy, an increase to national insurance contributions for self-employed people, was reversed within a week, causing significant damage to the chancellor.

With Hammond already under pressure from hardline Brexiters for his perceived caution, any mistake was seen as likely to be fatal. But as it turned out, last week's budget was largely viewed as a low-key success, even if the most notable change, on stamp duty, looks a touch economically incoherent.

Hammond cheered Tory Brexiters with an additional £3bn in funding to prepare for departure from the EU. This is not officially earmarked as a contingency for a no-deal Brexit, but many view it in this light.

In an attempt to shift along at least some non-Brexit policy, ministers on Monday published details of the government's new industrial strategy, the sort of dull, long-term but important initiative that in more normal political times is the bread and butter of running the country.

Of course, what news there was about the strategy was soon removed from the media agenda by the announcement of the royal engagement. If you were conspiracy-minded, you might see this as almost deliberate.

You should also know ...

Read these:

In the Observer, Fintan O'Toole argued that the hard-won kinship between Britain and Ireland was threatened by Brexit idiocy, reckless British arrogance and an utter lack of progress over the post-separation border:

It is quite a feat for the Brexiters to turn their most sympathetic ally into the scapegoat for their own most egregious failures. They've pulled it off by utilising their most remarkable skill: sheer incompetence. They have known since 29 April, when the European commission issued its negotiating guidelines, that credible proposals on the Irish border were a basic condition that had to be satisfied before trade talks could start ... Behind it all is an assumption that Ireland is an eccentric little offshoot of Britain that must shut its gob and stop asking awkward questions. It is, in fact, a sovereign country with the full backing of 26 other EU member states – and how strange it is that we have reached a point where this comes as an unpleasant surprise to so many people in London.

Prospect magazine has the full text of a fascinating speech at Hertford College, Oxford, by Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain's former ambassador to the EU, looking back on how David Cameron ended up driving Britain to Brexit. It's very long, but as an analysis of British exceptionalism and its consequences, a remarkable read – and not optimistic for the future:

Cameron got the vast bulk of what he sought. And it was, in a world in which we had stayed in, seriously worth having. We indeed seem to be arguing for many of the same things now. But we will find, outside the single market – which we simply have to be if we cannot accept free movement, and of which there is no such thing as partial membership, and with a huge financial centre which cannot live as a rule-taker – that these protections are simply not securable from outside.

Tweet of the week

An Oxford economic history professor spells out the Irish border problem:

HMG says that the border can only be addressed in Stage 2 when the talks turn to trade. But HMG has already ruled out all options (UK as a whole in CU+SM, NI in CU+SM) that can avoid a border. So what do they want to talk about in Stage 2?

— Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke (@kevinhorourke) November 27, 2017
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