Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Brexit weekly briefing: Tory civil war thwarts May's push forwards

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: Tory civil war thwarts May's push forwards

Hammond called for a 'very modest Brexit' while Rees-Mogg feared UK as a 'vassal state'

It's a headache: Philip Hammond on a panel session at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
It's a headache: Philip Hammond on a panel session at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Photograph: Laurent Gillieron/EPA

Dan Roberts Brexit policy editor


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This ought to have been a moment for clarity and calm to descend on Brexitland. Fresh from concluding the first phase of exit talks in December, both sides were expected to be mostly agreed on a transition arrangement by now and moving on to thinking about the future. Instead, the frontlines have once again become shrouded in the fog of (civil) war. Theresa May's big New Year push has become grounded in the mud.

The skirmish that did happen was over the transition deal, where the EU announced a set of plans on Monday that directly contradicted much of what David Davis was setting out at the same time before a House of Lords select committee. Michel Barnier insisted Britain would have to follow all new EU rules during a 21-month transition phase. Davis promised peers there would be a UK opt-out during a 24-month period. While most independent experts believe neither period will be long enough to implement a comprehensive new trade deal, Barnier thinks they can reach an outline "political framework" by October 2018, Davis wants until next Christmas to agree everything bar the detail. Getting their diaries aligned will be just the start.

The other big battle was on the home front, within the Tory party. Chancellor Philip Hammond's call for a "very modest Brexit" while speaking to business leaders in Davos went down like cold glühwein back home in Westminster. More blue-on-blue action ensued at the remain end of the government when the climate change minister, Claire Perry, was revealed to have accused her Brexiter colleagues of the dreaded "swivel eyes". Meanwhile Jacob Rees-Mogg kept his eyes firmly in his sockets while savaging Davis in Tuesday's Commons select committee over his plan to accept "vassal state status" in transition. After another weekend of leadership speculation, Rees-Mogg went on to warn Telegraph readers:

If the Conservative party doesn't deliver the Brexit that the British people voted for, the Conservatives will not win the next election.

But while the infighting was enough to postpone May's supposed big speech on what she wants from phase two, it has not quelled speculation that Brexit may not even happen – certainly if the deal ends up looking as bad as it does now and leads to another referendum instead. An unusually large poll by ICM for the Guardian found that the number of people who would like a final say on the exit now outnumbers those who don't by a startling 16 percentage points. The country is as divided as ever on the question of whether to leave or remain, but increasingly agreed that it would like the chance to decide once and for all when everyone is in possession of some facts about the terms of departure. Lots for Labour to talk about when it holds an internal Brexit summit early next month.

Best of the rest

Tim Shipman is as readable as ever on the meltdown in the Tory party.

Britain is already talking about how to extend transition, according to the Telegraph.

But, apparently, it's the civil service to blame rather than dithering, it says.

Britain is also falling behind schedule in its efforts to secure ongoing trade deals elsewhere.

Once more EU leaders tell the UK it can reverse Brexit.

Another science blow as a satellite monitoring centre moves to Spain.

Mount Tory is ready to blow, says Polly Toynbee.

Top comment

Hugo Dixon of Infacts says remainers should draw some solace from the chaos.

Theresa May is like a rabbit frozen in the headlights. She can't figure out which way to turn – a hard Brexit which would hurt the economy or soft one which many Tories would say would turn us into a 'vassal state' … As she fritters away more time without spelling out a realistic plan for our future relationship with the EU, the public will get more anxious that she's botching Brexit.

Rafael Behr meanwhile nails the multi-dimensional problem in typically colourful style.

It would be wrong to say the Tory party is split over Brexit, since that implies a discernible line separating two portions of opinion. The reality is beginning to look more like a window pane into which a brick has been hurled but which has not yet shattered.

Top tweet

The former Danish ambassador to London speaks for many European leaders who are losing patience with British dithering and may soon adopt a different approach.

Clock is ticking! Either UK Tory Government agree on a precise form of Brexit or EU will do it for them. So much for "Taking back control". #Brexit.@GrubeClaus

— Claus Grube (@GrubeClaus) January 28, 2018
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