Economy A summary of the short-term indicators published in early April 2018. Commenting on today's short-term economic indicator figures, Head of National Accounts Darren Morgan said:
"Manufacturing continued to grow in the three months to February but at the slowest rate seen since the summer, with increases in machinery, metal products and pharmaceuticals offset by falls in electrical appliances and oil refining. This drop in refining may have contributed to the fall in fuel exports and the large rise in fuel imports also seen in the three months to February.
"The trade deficit widened a little in the three months to February, with reduced imports of machinery offsetting the rise in fuel imports.
"Construction fell in the three months to February after an erratic couple of months, mainly due to a big decline in repair work. However, this was partially offset by growth in both infrastructure and housebuilding." In the three months to February 2018, the Index of Production decreased by 0.1% compared with the three months to November 2017, due to a fall of 8.6% in mining and quarrying, caused mainly by the shutdown of the Forties oil pipeline within December 2017. In the three months to February 2018, manufacturing provided the largest upward contribution to total production with an increase of 0.6%. In February 2018, total production was estimated to have increased by 0.1% compared with January 2018; energy supply provided the largest upward contribution, increasing by 3.7%. In February 2018 compared with January 2018, manufacturing declined by 0.2%, the first time output has fallen since March 2017; and in February 2018 compared with February 2017, manufacturing increased by 2.5%. Energy supply increased by 3.7% in February 2018 compared with January 2018 due to below average temperature. Despite snowfall in some areas of the UK during February 2018, there was no survey evidence to suggest that the snowfall had any negative impact. Data published in this release is consistent with the release of Quarterly National Accounts: October to December 2017 published on 29 March 2018. The total UK trade deficit (goods and services) widened by £0.4 billion to £6.4 billion in the three months to February 2018; excluding erratic commodities it widened by £1.0 billion to £7.5 billion.
The £0.4 billion widening of the total trade deficit was due mainly to a £2.1 billion fall in non-EU goods exports, partially offset by increases of £0.9 billion in EU goods and £0.4 billion in total services exports in the three months to February 2018.
Movements in goods exports were largely offset by imports, therefore there was little change in the goods deficit with EU or non-EU countries, which widened by £0.2 billion and narrowed by £0.1 billion respectively in the three months to February 2018.
The goods deficit widened by £0.1 billion in the three months to February 2018; the balances for fuels and unspecified goods widened by £1.9 billion and £0.6 billion respectively, offsetting a £1.4 billion and £0.8 billion narrowing of the machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals balances respectively.
Decreases in export volumes had the largest impact on the widening of the trade in goods deficit in the three months to February 2018.
Comparing the 12 months to February 2018 with the same period in 2017, the total trade deficit narrowed by £12.9 billion to £27.5 billion; the services surplus widened by £11.1 billion to £108.3 billion and the goods deficit narrowed by £1.8 billion to £135.8 billion.
The UK trade in goods deficit with the EU narrowed by £2.9 billion to £94.4 billion and with non-EU countries widened by £1.1 billion to £41.4 billion in the 12 months to February 2018.
Revisions to the total trade (goods and services) balance during January 2017 to December 2017 are due mainly to revisions to services exports; upward revisions to the total trade balance in January 2018 are due largely to a £0.6 billion downward revision to imports of goods. Business, industry and trade Construction output continued its recent decline in the three-month on three-month series, falling by 0.8% in February 2018. The three-month on three-month decrease in construction output was driven predominantly by the continued decline in repair and maintenance work, which fell by 2.6% in February 2018. Construction output also decreased in the month-on-month series, contracting by 1.6% in February 2018, stemming from a 9.4% decrease in infrastructure new work. Compared with February 2017, construction output fell 3.0%; the biggest month-on-year fall since March 2013. Office for National Statistics has received some anecdotal information from a small number of survey respondents regarding the effect of the snow on their businesses in the final week of February 2018. The adverse weather conditions across Great Britain could have potentially contributed to the decline in construction output, although it is difficult to quantify the exact impact on the industry. In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, data in this publication is consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts: October to December 2017 published 29 March 2018, incorporating the latest standard revisions and updated Value Added Tax (VAT) data for January 2017 to June 2017 and new VAT data for July 2017 to September 2017. | 
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