Business, industry and trade For the Quarterly National Accounts: April to June 2017 publication, improvements have been implemented to construction output from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2010, leading to revisions. These are as a result to improvements in nominal data, output price indices and seasonal adjustment. The annual growth rate for 2016 has been revised from 2.4% to 3.8%. There are implied revisions rounded to one decimal place of 0.1 percentage points to the output approach to gross domestic product (GDP) in three quarters, assuming all other components are equal: a negative revision to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015; and an upward revision for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016. Economy Commenting on today's national accounts figures, Head of Gross Domestic Product, Darren Morgan said: "There was a notable slowdown in growth in the first half of 2017. The often buoyant services sector was the only area to grow in the second quarter, mainly due to increases in computer programming and retail. "Household spending growth continued to slow in the second quarter. However, revised figures show business investment grew more strongly than previously estimated. Meanwhile, the UK's deficit with the rest of the world was little changed in the second quarter. "Today's figures include several improvements to the way we measure the UK economy, including better estimates of self-employed income and interest received from corporate bonds. These improvements have the impact of increasing the saving ratio and current account deficit over a number of years." The Index of Services decreased by 0.2% between June and July 2017. The largest contribution to the month-on-month decrease came from the transport, storage and communication sector, which contributed negative 0.22 percentage points The industry largely responsible for the fall on the month was motion pictures, which contributed negative 0.19 percentage points; this decrease follows a particularly strong June for the industry. In the three months to July 2017, services output increased by 0.5% compared with the three months ending April 2017; this is the highest three-month on three-month estimate in 2017 so far. The UK's current account deficit was £23.2 billion (4.6% of gross domestic product) in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, a widening of £0.9 billion from a revised deficit of £22.3 billion (4.4% of gross domestic product) in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017. The widening in the current account deficit was driven by a widening to the deficit on primary and secondary incomes, which widened £1.4 billion and £1.9 billion respectively; these were mostly offset by a narrowing of the deficit on trade in goods which narrowed £2.3 billion in Quarter 2 2017. The primary income deficit widened to £10.2 billion in Quarter 2 2017 due to foreign earnings on direct investment and portfolio investment in the UK increasing more than UK earnings on direct investment and portfolio investment abroad between Quarter 1 2017 and Quarter 2 2017. The total trade deficit narrowed to £6.5 billion in Quarter 2 2017, primarily due to increased exports of trade in goods of which; exports of chemicals increased by £1.1 billion and exports of oil increased by £0.8 billion. The international investment position shows UK net liabilities of £101.2 billion at the end of Quarter 2 2017. In Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, household spending (adjusted for inflation) grew by 0.2% compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017. The main contribution to growth can be seen in "Miscellaneous goods and services", which has increased by 0.4% compared with Quarter 1 2017. Household spending grew 1.6% in Quarter 2 2017, when compared with Quarter 2 2016. In Quarter 2 2017, current price spending increased by 0.5% compared with Quarter 1 2017. This article compares the estimates of public sector net borrowing published in the monthly public sector finances (PSF), on 21 September 2017, and the national accounts (NA), published on 29 September 2017, and summarises the reasons for the differences identified. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in volume terms, was estimated to have increased by 0.6% to £81.2 billion in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2017 from £80.7 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017. Business investment was estimated to have increased by 0.5% to £45.7 billion in Quarter 2 2017 from £45.4 billion in Quarter 1 2017. Between Quarter 2 2016 and Quarter 2 2017, GFCF was estimated to have increased by 2.4%, from £79.3 billion and business investment was estimated to have increased by 2.5%, from £44.5 billion. We have published a series of articles over the last few months describing the improvements being made to national accounts in Blue Book 2017 and Pink Book 2017 and their impact on gross domestic product (GDP), the sector and financial accounts (SFA), and balance of payments (BoP) from 1997 to 2015. This article summarises the effects of methodological, classification and other changes and extends previously published analysis to cover the period to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 and current price GDP historical data (pre-1997). Distribution and use of income, capital and financial account and balance sheet data for public and private non-financial corporations. |
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