Wednesday, November 15, 2017

ONS releases - Labour market, and UK productivity flash estimate

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15 November 2017

Economy

UK productivity flash estimate: July to September 2017

Output per hour – Office for National Statistics' (ONS's) main measure of labour productivity – increased by 0.9% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017. This compares with a fall of 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, as presented in Figure 1. Following two quarters of falling labour productivity, this is the fastest growth rate since 2011, resulting in a level of productivity slightly higher than its pre-downturn peak. Output per worker grew slower than output per hour, at a rate of 0.4% (see Figure 2).
Output per hour growth in Quarter 3 2017 was the result of a 0.4% increase in gross value added (GVA) (using the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimate) accompanied by a 0.5% fall in total hours worked (using the latest Labour Force Survey data). This fall in total hours was driven primarily by a 0.5% fall in average hours per worker.
This flash estimate of UK productivity uses the first available information on output and labour input for the quarter. These data may be revised in subsequent months. As such, ONS releases the more detailed Productivity bulletin after the third estimate of GDP for the quarter is published, consistent with the quarterly national accounts.


Employment and labour market

Regional labour market statistics in the UK: November 2017

For the three months ending September 2017, the highest employment rate in the UK was in the South East (79.7%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (68.1%).
For the three months ending September 2017, the highest unemployment rate in the UK was in the North East and West Midlands (both 5.5%), and the lowest was in the South East (3.2%).
For the three months ending September 2017, the highest economic inactivity rate in the UK was in Northern Ireland (28.9%) and the lowest was in the South East (17.6%).
Between March and June 2017, the largest increase in workforce jobs in the UK was in Wales, at 44,000, whilst the largest decrease was in Yorkshire and The Humber at 26,000.
In June 2017, the region with the highest proportion of workforce jobs in the services sector was London at 91.9%, which has increased by 0.6 percentage points since March 2017, whilst the East Midlands had the highest proportion of jobs in the production sector at 14.0%.
The highest average actual weekly hours worked, for the 12 months ending June 2017, was in London at 33.7 hours and the lowest was in Yorkshire and The Humber, at 31.2 hours; for full-time workers, it was highest in London at 38.4 hours and for part-time workers it was highest in Northern Ireland at 16.9 hours.

UK labour market statistics: November 2017

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between April to June 2017 and July to September 2017, the number of people in work fell slightly, the number of unemployed people also fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) increased.
There were 32.06 million people in work, 14,000 fewer than for April to June 2017 but 279,000 more than for a year earlier.
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.0%, down slightly compared with April to June 2017 but up from 74.4% for a year earlier.
There were 1.42 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 59,000 fewer than for April to June 2017 and 182,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.8% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
There were 8.88 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 117,000 more than for April to June 2017 but 20,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.6%, higher than for April to June 2017 (21.3%) but down slightly from a year earlier.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.2% both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.4% including bonuses, and fell by 0.5% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Labour market economic commentary: November 2017

The UK unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3% in the three months to September 2017, compared with the three months to June 2017.
Although the employment rate decreased (by 0.1 percentage points) in the three months to September 2017, it is still up by 0.6 percentage points compared with a year ago.
The inactivity rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.6% in the three months to September 2017.
Real wages decreased by 0.5% (excluding bonuses) and by 0.4% (including bonuses) in the three months to September 2017 compared with a year earlier.
An examination of the relationship between wages and industrial composition shows that between 2016 and 2017, two service sectors: accommodation and food (I) and transport and storage (H), were major contributors to employee jobs, but both were associated with relatively weak performance in median wage.

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