Tuesday, November 21, 2017

SN Military Space | Hyten in Halifax; SpaceX, Orbital ATK poised for growth in military market

Tuesday, November 21, 2017
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by Sandra Erwin • serwin@spacenews.com

HOT TOPIC: MILITARY NEEDS 'RULES OF ENGAGEMENT' IN SPACE


When U.S. military forces go into combat or deploy on other missions, they follow "rules of engagement" that specify the circumstances and limitations under which forces will engage with the enemy. This has been standard practice in the U.S. military since the beginning of the republic, except for space operations.
 
Air Force Gen. John Hyten, head of U.S. Strategic Command, pointed out that airmen assigned to space duties are the only operators in the entire military who go to work without rules of engagement.
 
 "What rules of engagement do I give them on what to do in case something happens? They have none."

Gen. John Hyten, head of U.S. Strategic Command, noting that airmen assigned to space duties are the only operators in the entire military who go to work without rules of engagement.

 
Hyten was a big headliner this past weekend at the 2017 Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia. He made major news for saying he would reject an "illegal" nuclear strike order from President Donald Trump and would instead steer the commander in chief to other "options." He also shared some thoughts on space as potential battleground, a topic Hyten sees as highly relevant to his job as commander of U.S. nuclear forces. "Deterrence is not just about nuclear weapons," Hyten said. In the 21st century, the conversation has to be broader, including deterring "catastrophic activities in space and in cyberspace"


WHAT ARE THE RULES IN SPACE?

When Air Force operators are flying satellites, "What rules of engagement do I give them on what to do in case something happens? They have none," Hyten said.

Why?

"We don't have any international norms of behavior to build around." An international agreement on basic rules of the road would help the military write rules of engagement accordingly. "Now we're making up our own rules of engagement," he said. "That's a bad answer. We should have international agreement."
 
There is no such thing as "war in space," said Hyten. "It's just war." And when it extends to space "We have to figure out what to do. The actions to deter may not be in space."
 
Some people find it surprising that one of the military's most acclaimed space warriors is also one of the staunchest advocates of rules and good behavior in space.
 
"I think it's essential for our future security to have that," Hyten said.
 
"In space my job is not just to defend the United States. I also see my job to defend the environment. … If we don't, all those capabilities [that the government and the industry are developing] are impossible," he added. "If you have a debris cloud that circles over the poles all the time, we'll never be able to fly over the poles. It's critically important that we work to defend the environment."
 
"I'd like to start small ... Maybe have the Chinese come over and watch one of our launches. Then we go and watch one of theirs. It's a place to get started, to have a conversation." 

Gen. John Hyten, head of U.S. Strategic Command, speaking this past weekend at the 2017 Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia
 
THE MILITARY DREADS ORBITAL DEBRIS and views it as a serious threat. Space junk stays in orbit for years or decades. To avoid hitting pieces of a satellite China blew up in 2007, the International Space Station has to be repositioned two or three times a year, said Hyten. "We actually provide warnings to the Chinese and Russians. We want to make sure we don't have another accident in space."
 
Hyten even suggested it might be time to start conversing with China on space issues. Space cooperation between the United States and China ceased abruptly in 1998 after a congressional commission concluded that technical data that U.S. space companies had given to China for a commercial satellite program wound up in Chinese intercontinental ballistic missiles. The embargo is not likely to be lifted any time soon, but Hyten said it might benefit the U.S. to engage the Chinese as they continue to advance their space technology.
 
"I'd like to start small," he said. "Maybe have the Chinese come over and watch one of our launches. Then we go and watch one of theirs. It's a place to get started, to have a conversation."

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SPACEX, ORBITAL POISED FOR GROWTH IN MILITARY MARKET
 
A new report by Moody's Investors Service confirms what Air Force officials have been saying for the past two years: "The price that the Air Force pays SpaceX for each launch is considerably less than what was paid to the previous provider."
 
SpaceX and Orbital ATK are what is known as "Tier 2" contractors that, because of their aggressive investments and risk taking, will "compete well within DoD platform modernization programs across the next decade," Moody's analysts said. The good news for the Pentagon is that these companies' success will motivate Tier 1 contractors — which typically expect the government to fund projects — to step up their own research-and-development spending.
 
"Tier 2 contractors already are securing a place on important programs," the report said. It cites SpaceX and Orbital ATK as prime examples of NASA contractors that incurred development capital for new capabilities that position them to be platform prime contractors in the U.S. defense market.
 
The Air Force qualified SpaceX for launch services in 2015 and awarded its first contract in 2016 for a 2018 launch of a GPS-3 satellite. The 2016 fixed-price contract was for $82.7 million, including the Falcon 9 rocket, mission integration, launch operations and spaceflight certification. In 2016, the Air Force awarded Orbital ATK a $305 million joint development contract, Next Generation Launch Vehicle, to develop two rockets, one intermediate and one large class. The design features solid rocket propulsion derived from Orbital's Castor engine family that powered NASA's space shuttle.
 
The next important step will be whether the Air Force awards Orbital a launch services agreement in 2018, after which manufacturing would begin with a certification flight in 2021. Orbital is in the process of being acquired by Northrop Grumman Corp.
 
Until mid-2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Lockheed and Boeing, held a monopoly on U.S. military launch services.
 
According to Moody's "DoD's heightened focus on innovation and efficiency gives contractors who have historically not lead defense platform programs the opportunity to bid and win."
 

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SN MILITARY.SPACE is sent out Tuesdays and written by SpaceNews Staff Writer Sandra Erwin

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