Welcome to the Guardian's weekly Brexit briefing, back after a brief festive break to bring you a regular summary of the latest developments as the UK marches with a more or less firm step towards the EU door marked "exit". If you would like to receive the briefing as a weekly email, please do click and sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means podcast right here; a new episode will be going online later in the week. One more thing: producing the Guardian's independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters – and it may be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian Supporter and help make our future more secure. Thank you.
The big picture With article 50 separation talks now behind her – albeit leaving a number of loose ends still to tie up – Theresa May marked the beginning of phase two of Britain's Brexit talks with a cabinet reshuffle (more on that below). The next 10 months will make or break Brexit. The UK and EU hope to sign off on a formal divorce agreement and at least an outline of future trading ties by October, giving all the capitals time to approve it before Britain leaves on 31 March 2019. London would like more than an outline, but that looks very unlikely. It also wants a transition deal – or "implementation period " – agreed by the end of March, the prime minister told the BBC's Andrew Marr, which looks more achievable, although by no means certain. Much could still go wrong. Britain continues to insist it want a "creative", "deep and special" relationship holding on to most of the benefits of EU membership, but the government's red lines preclude staying in the single market. Without some kind of customs union with the EU – which the chancellor, Phillip Hammond, refused to rule out – there is no solution in sight for the Irish border, and no indication of how May can keep Northern Ireland's DUP (on which her majority depends), the Irish government and her own Brexiters happy. The EU has made clear that the UK's demands mean the final outcome can only be a trade deal along the lines of Canada's, plus some extra cooperation in areas such as defence and justice but with customs barriers and little provision for services. As that becomes clearer, pro-Brexit campaigners may question if such a deal is worth the £40bn the UK has as good as agreed to pay. Talks could break down before October; May's government could fall; the UK could yet walk out. Early shots were fired by Brexit secretary David Davis, who turned the EU's Brexit motto against it to say the bloc cannot "cherrypick" in a trade deal and the UK would not accept financial services being excluded from any agreement. The old year ended with fireworks as the Labour peer Andrew Adonis resigned as the government's infrastructure tsar, saying Brexit was a "nationalist spasm" that was causing a "nervous breakdown" in Whitehall and describing the government's EU withdrawal bill as "the worst legislation of my lifetime". The new year does not look like being an easy ride. The view from Europe Europe has largely been on holiday too, but shows no signs of budging from its stance: the four freedoms are indivisible, and Britain's red lines – "taking back control" of borders, laws and money – have unavoidable consequences for the kind of post-Brexit relationship available. The 27's impressive unity thus far is not guaranteed to last, however. German chancellor Angela Merkel is otherwise engaged in new coalition talks but Emmanuel Macron, the French president, urged EU leaders last week to maintain solidarity as negotiations move on to discuss the future trade deal: Each of us can have our own interests ... Everyone can have an interest in negotiating on their own, and think they can negotiate better than their neighbour. If we do that, it is probable that collectively we will create a situation unfavourable to the EU and thus to each one of us. Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, meanwhile, said no one should believe Brexit will be reversed: Don't believe those who say that it's not going to happen and that people in the UK have realised their error ... I don't think that's going to be the case. Meanwhile, back in Westminster The first day of business at Westminster after Christmas was dominated by tweaks to cabinet positions which could, perhaps, be titled the wide-ranging ministerial shake-up that wasn't. While it was always expected that none of the cabinet big beasts would be moved – and they were not – the main action, as it dribbled out over hours of announcements, ended up some way short of reboot of the May administration billed by some in advance. The main shifts were the promotion of David Lidington, the justice secretary and all-round safe pair of hands, to take over from May's dismissed de facto deputy Damian Green – though without the title of first secretary of state – and the resignation of the education secretary, Justine Greening, who could be trouble on the backbenches. Beyond that were a series of sideways moves, including the culture secretary, Karen Bradley, replacing James Brokenshire as Northern Ireland secretary, who has stepped aside to have a major operation on one lung. Those watching from Brussels will first note that nothing very much has changed Brexit-wise – David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson remain in the three main EU-focused cabinet positions. There was no sign of the mooted role of minister for a no-deal Brexit, though that could emerge in the junior appointments later. But most of all they will discern the vast difference between May's first reshuffle, when she took power in 2016, and this one, now with her majority gone and authority hugely undermined. In 2016 she sacked senior ministers without a thought. This time, her main proposed change – moving health secretary Jeremy Hunt to the business department – didn't happen after he refused to go. Business secretary Greg Clark, who had gone to No 10 assuming a demotion or sacking, also re-emerged in his old job. This is not a prime minister in complete control of her ministers, and thus the direction of her government: the EU will doubtless go into the next stage of Brexit talks with this in mind. You should also know Read these In the Guardian, Timothy Garton Ash argues that Brexit can be stopped, but not without some help from across the Channel: To be clear: I have no illusions about the probability of stopping Brexit. It may be that in the end we are compelled to settle for some worse alternative, such as being a Norway-like rule-taker rather than rule-maker. For the economic wellbeing of Britain, and particularly for that of poorer groups and regions who voted for Brexit, this would still be a less bad outcome than setting off for the fairytale never-never land of buccaneering neo-Elizabethan independence – a Trump-like mirage of "Global Britain". Yet so many improbable things have happened in world politics over the last two years that perhaps we should redefine politics as the art of the improbable. Without illusions, let us fight for the only good outcome, for Europe as well as Britain. Expect the worst, work for the best. Martin Kettle laments that Tony Blair is a flawed messenger, because he is making the best case on the left against the government's disastrous vision of Brexit Blair articulates the case against Theresa May's Brexit strategy more clearly and more devastatingly than anyone else in British public life. He is putting into words things that no one else is managing to do so well, so succinctly or with such urgency ... The four options he sets out for Britain – remain and reform, leave but stay in the single market and customs union, exit all structures but make a bespoke deal, and make a virtue of leaving – are the only choices facing Britain. Twelve months from now, Britain will have embarked on one of them. For 15 years, Blair has provided an excuse for some in the Labour party not to think about the large and difficult questions that face 21st-century Britain, and which would face any Labour government of whatever ideological stripe. Blair and accusations of Blairism have been cynically and very successfully exploited to advance the left's cause. It is time for Labour to stop refighting ancient wars and focus ecumenically on the radical and real task in hand. No issue is more real and more pressing than Brexit. Tweet of the week The New Statesman's deputy editor on Theresa May's cabinet reshuffle: | 
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Theresa May told the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday that she wants a transition deal agreed by March. Photograph: handout/Reuters 
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