European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs: Documents

In-Depth Analysis - An economic recovery with little sign of inflation acceleration: A transitory phenomenon or evidence of a structural change? - PE 614.210 - Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs 15-02-2018 12:00 AM CET This paper investigates the possibility that there has been a structural shift in inflation (upward) in the euro area since the recovery in 2014 or 2015. From the perspective of policy, it is important to be sure that any such shifts are significant statistically, sustained or likely to be sustained (durable) over the near future, and are evenly distributed over the member economies so that no one of them is damaged by anti-inflation measures taken to help the others. We approach the problem in two steps: we first examine the circumstantial and informal evidence, and then conduct formal statistical tests for structural changes in euro area inflation in 2015 or 2016. We find no evidence of a structural change under the four criteria mentioned. The even distribution of inflation criterion is the closest to being satisfied, but the other three are far from satisfied in any formal sense. There was a brief acceleration in inflation in mid-2016 towards 2%, but it flattened out in 2017 and has been constant at 1.5% ever since. Core inflation was constant at 0.9% throughout. The question is why has there been no inflation in the recovery and how long is that likely to last? In a third step, we explain how low growth in real wages and self-reinforcing low productivity growth produces slow output growth and low inflation. This model fits the data pretty well, down to the lack of labour and total factor productivity and to substituting cheaper labour for excess capital stock. It implies a fall in investment spending (also seen in the data) which in turn extends the period for which low productivity-low inflation outcomes apply. Source : © European Union, 2018 - EP In-Depth Analysis - Why does the recovery show so little inflation? - PE 614.212 - Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs 15-02-2018 12:00 AM CET We investigate the determinants of inflation in the euro area since 2000 and show that the most important determinants are inflation expectations and wage growth. Both indicators have contributed negatively to inflation since 2014 but inflation expectations less so since 2015 whereas the contribution of wage growth has remained negative. We suggest that structural reforms may have put a drag on the ability of the ECB to reach its inflation target rapidly. Source : © European Union, 2018 - EP QUESTIONS? STAY CONNECTED  Contact Us |   This email was sent on behalf of the European Parliament · Bât. Altiero Spinelli · 60 rue Wiertz / Wiertzstraat 60 · B-1047 - Bruxelles/Brussels  · Belgium · Phone: +32(0)2 28 42111