Wednesday, February 21, 2018

UK Productivity, Public Sector Finances, and Labour Market

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21 February 2018

Economy

UK productivity flash estimate: October to December 2017

Labour productivity – measured on an output per hour basis – grew 0.8% in Q4 2017, according to ONS's initial 'flash' estimate of productivity. The growth was due to an increase of 0.5% in GVA, combined with a 0.3% fall in total hours worked. 

Public sector finances, UK: January 2018

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £7.2 billion to £37.7 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to January 2018), compared with the same period in the previous financial year; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since the financial year-to-date ending January 2008.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) will be £49.9 billion during the financial year ending March 2018, an increase of £4.1 billion on the outturn net borrowing in the financial year ending March 2017.
Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) was in surplus by £10.0 billion in January 2018, which is £1.6 billion less of a surplus than in January 2017; this is the second-lowest January net borrowing (or second-highest surplus) on record (monthly recording of net borrowing began in April 1993).
Self-assessed Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax receipts (combined) were £18.4 billion in January 2018, which is £0.9 billion less than in January 2017: the proportion of self-assessed taxes recorded in January and February can vary year-on-year and it is therefore advisable to consider data for the two months (January and February) together.
Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was £1,736.8 billion at the end of January 2018, equivalent to 84.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of £55.7 billion (or 0.4 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on January 2017.
Public sector net debt (excluding both public sector banks and Bank of England) was £1,568.7 billion at the end of January 2018, equivalent to 75.9% of GDP, a decrease of £16.3 billion (or 3.0 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on January 2017.
Central government net cash requirement decreased by £31.0 billion to £21.7 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to January 2018), compared with the same period in the previous financial year; this is the lowest year-to-date central government net cash requirement since the financial year ending March 2008.


Employment and labour market

Commenting on today's labour market figures, senior ONS statistician Matt Hughes said:
       
"While this is the sharpest increase in the unemployment level ONS has seen in almost five years, the number of people in work has continued to rise and there are fewer 'economically inactive' people – those neither working nor looking for a job. Earnings continue to grow more slowly than prices.

"Rising employment this past year was largely driven by UK nationals. In particular, fewer citizens of the eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and of non-EU countries were in work than in the year before.  But it's important to remember these figures simply look at the number of people in work, and aren't a measure of migration."

UK labour market statistics: February 2018

Regional labour market statistics in the UK: February 2018

Labour market economic commentary: February 2018

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