Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Brexit weekly briefing: launch of the campaign for a 'people's vote'

EU Referendum Morning Briefing

Brexit weekly briefing: launch of the campaign for a 'people's vote'

Cross-party grouping is seeking what it carefully avoids calling a second referendum

The People's Vote launch event. From left: Caroline Lucas, Layla Moran, Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry are joined onstage by comedian Andy Parsons.
The People's Vote launch event. From left: Caroline Lucas, Layla Moran, Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry, with comedian Andy Parsons. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

Jon Henley


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With Westminster and Brussels on holiday, there weren't many. But as the UK and EU gear up for their first discussion this week on the future relationship, MPs from the four main parties in Britain launched a push for a "people's vote" on the final deal.

Carefully avoiding the term "second referendum", the cross-party lineup included the Conservatives' Anna Soubry, the Greens' Caroline Lucas, Liberal Democrat Layla Moran and Chuka Umunna, who urged his Labour party to be "true to its values and support this".

Whether the proposition can win a majority in the House of Commons is unclear. But pressure on the government to secure a sensible final deal mounted, with the Institute of Directors bluntly urging it to maintain close ties with the EU after Brexit.

The IoD said trade with the EU and the rest of the world would have to be boosted to fulfil ministers' "global Britain" ambitions, with the EU currently providing stronger growth for UK firms selling overseas than Asia or North America.

A warning of what might be in store if the government gets it wrong came from Jaguar Land Rover, which announced it was cutting 1,000 jobs owing to Brexit "headwinds" – while Ireland reiterated its regular reminder of trouble ahead.

The Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, warned that the withdrawal treaty and the transition agreement would both be at risk as early as June unless Britain came up with an acceptable wording as a "backstop" solution to the Irish border question in the event of no deal.

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In the Guardian, Hugo Dixon argues that Brexit is looking bad on all fronts, which is why there should be a people's vote on the final deal:

Quitting the EU will affect us for generations to come. It will impact jobs, the NHS, the environment, our ability to stand up to bullies across the world, our pride and even the unity of the United Kingdom. A good deal would be good for our public services, prosperity, power and peace. But as new facts emerge, it is clear Brexit will fail on all counts. The leave campaign's slogan was "take back control". This is a bad joke. As Theresa May makes one climbdown after another in the Brexit talks, it's clear we are losing control. This is because we need the EU more than it needs us – exactly the opposite of what Johnson, Gove and co promised two years ago. This tail-between-our-legs Brexit will be bad for our pride and bad for our power. We'll have less clout on the global stage too. At a time when Russia is flexing its muscles, is it really sensible to burn our bridges with Europe? Brexiters will, no doubt, seek to trash the idea of a people's vote by calling it a second referendum. It's not. In 2016, voters had a choice between the reality of staying in the EU and the fantasy promised by the leave campaign. Once we know what the deal is, we will be able to compare two realities. That's not undemocratic. It's common sense.

In the New Statesman, George Eaton argues that public opinion remains too ambiguous for most MPs to back a new vote:

The facts have changed since the public first voted. Rather than swiftly securing a new trade deal, the UK has been forced to accept a "transition period" of 21 months during which it will remain subject to all EU laws. Though a recession has been avoided, British GDP growth in 2017 was the weakest for five years and the worst of any G7 country. The fantasy of reaping £350m a week for the NHS has been discredited (Britain is forecast to endure a net fiscal loss of around that amount). A YouGov poll suggests 44% of voters believe the public should have the "final say" on whether the UK remains in the EU, while 38% believe it should not. Remainers naturally seized on the finding, but public opinion is more ambiguous than they would like. A differently worded question in the same poll, which asked whether there should be a "public vote", put "should not" ahead by six points (45-39). And it is far from certain that the UK would differently. Today's YouGov poll gives Remain a three-point lead (44-41), but others have suggested Leave would win by a similar margin. There is an unambiguous democratic case for a new referendum, but the political case is harder to make.

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The Home Office "hostile environment" inflicted on Windrush-era citizens from the Caribbean could bode ill for EU nationals in the UK:

If the Home Office is making all these cock-ups over the Windrush generation, how can they possibly hope to register the more than 3m EU citizens living here? I suspect that this is just a tiny taste of what is to come post-Brexit

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) April 16, 2018
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