Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Public sector finances, public sector employment and labour market statistics

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21 March 2018

Economy

Public sector finances, UK: February 2018

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £2.5 billion to £41.4 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to February 2018), compared with the same period in the previous financial year; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since the financial year-to-date ending February 2008.

The Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) official forecast of public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) for the current financial year (April 2017 to March 2018), was revised down from £49.9 billion to £45.2 billion at the Spring Statement (13 March 2018).

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) increased by £2.5 billion to £1.3 billion in February 2018, compared with February 2017.

Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was £1,762.6 billion at the end of February 2018, equivalent to 85.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of £68.1 billion (or 0.9 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on February 2017.

Public sector net debt (excluding both public sector banks and Bank of England) was £1,570.6 billion at the end of February 2018, equivalent to 75.8% of GDP, a decrease of £16.4 billion (or 3.1 percentage points as a ratio of GDP) on February 2017.

Central government net cash requirement decreased by £29.1 billion to £19.7 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to February 2018), compared with the same period in the previous financial year; this is the lowest year-to-date central government net cash requirement since the financial year-to-date ending February 2003.


Employment and labour market

Regional labour market statistics in the UK: March 2018

For the three months ending January 2018, the highest employment rate in the UK was in the South West (79.3%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (69.8%).

For the three months ending January 2018, the highest unemployment rate in the UK was in the North East (5.2%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (3.2%); the range between the highest and lowest rates is the lowest on record (1992).

For the three months ending January 2018, the highest economic inactivity rate in the UK was in Northern Ireland (27.8%) and the lowest was in the South West (17.5%).

Between September and December 2017, the largest increase in workforce jobs in the UK was in London at 35,000, whilst the largest decrease was in the South East at 52,000.

In December 2017, the region with the highest proportion of workforce jobs in the services sector was London at 91.3%, which has increased by 0.6 percentage points since September 2017, whilst the East Midlands had the highest proportion of jobs in the production sector at 13.5%.

The highest average actual weekly hours worked, for the 12 months ending September 2017, was in London at 33.6 hours and the lowest was in Yorkshire and The Humber at 31.2 hours; for full-time workers, it was highest in the East of England at 38.4 hours and for part-time workers it was highest in Scotland and Northern Ireland, both at 16.9 hours.


Public sector employment, UK: December 2017

 There were 5.35 million people employed in the public sector for December 2017, that is, 132,000 fewer than for September 2017 and 100,000 fewer compared with December 2016; these large falls were entirely due to the transfer of English housing associations to the private sector.

Excluding the English housing associations reclassification effect, the number of people employed in the public sector increased by 9,000 between September and December 2017 and increased by 44,000 between December 2016 and December 2017.

There were 26.90 million people employed in the private sector for December 2017, that is, 300,000 more than for September 2017 and 502,000 more than for December 2016; these increases were partly due to the transfer of English housing associations to the private sector.

Excluding the English housing associations reclassification effect, the number of people employed in the private sector increased by 159,000 between September and December 2017 and increased by 358,000 between December 2016 and December 2017.

For December 2017, of all people in paid work, there were 16.6% employed in the public sector and the remaining 83.4% were employed in the private sector.


UK labour market statistics: March 2018

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between August to October 2017 and November 2017 to January 2018, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased, but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

There were 8.72 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 158,000 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since November 2000 to January 2001.


The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.


Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.6% excluding bonuses, and by 2.8% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.


Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.


    Labour market economic commentary: March 2018

    The slight increase in the number of unemployed people was insufficient to have a material impact on the unemployment rate, which stayed at 4.3% in the three months to January 2018.


    The employment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points on the previous quarter to 75.3% in the three months to January 2018.


    The last several years saw increases in the full-time-to-part-time and temporary-to-permanent employment ratios – a factor that may be affecting wage growth now.


    Public sector workers also contributed to slower overall wage growth.


    Commenting on today's labour market figures, senior ONS statistician Matt Hughes said:

    "Employment and unemployment levels were both up on the quarter, with the employment rate returning to its joint highest ever. 'Economically inactive' people – those who are neither working nor looking for a job – fell by their largest amount in almost five and a half years, however.

    "Total earnings growth continues to nudge upwards in cash terms.  However, earnings are still failing to outpace inflation."

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