Thursday, March 22, 2018

Retail sales statistics and population estimates

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22 March 2018

Business, industry and trade

Retail sales, Great Britain: February 2018

In February 2018, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.8% when compared with the previous month, with increases seen across all main sectors except non-food stores.

The monthly increase to the quantity bought follows two monthly declines in December and January, resulting in an overall decrease of 0.4% in the three months to February.

The year-on-year growth rate increased by 1.5% following a general slowdown when compared with an increase of 3.3% in February 2017; however, this stabilised in recent months as we see little movement in the year-on-year growth since November 2017.

While we continue to see price increases across all sectors, there is a slowdown to growth in the last two months, falling from 3.1% in December to 2.5% in February.

Internet sales saw an increase in its proportion of all seasonally adjusted retailing in February when compared with January, accounting for 17.2% of all retail; this continues the general upward trend in money spent online as the proportion of online spending in February 2017 was at 15.6%.


Commenting on today's retail sales figures, ONS senior statistician, Rhian Murphy said:

"Retail sales did grow in February, with increases seen in food, non-store and fuel, but this followed two months of declines in these sectors.

"However, the underlying three-month picture is one of falling sales, mainly due to strong declines across all sectors in December.

"Store prices continue to rise across all store types, but at a lower rate than the previous month due to a slowdown in price growth, though clothing and household goods stores continued to see stronger price rises."


Economy

MQ5: Investment by insurance companies, pension funds and trusts: October to December 2017

Net investment of £24 billion was reported by insurance companies, pension funds and trusts in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017; in terms of context, the five-year quarterly average for this series is net investment of £9 billion.

The net investment in overseas government securities in Quarter 4 2017 (£7 billion), was the largest since the start of this series in 1986.

In Quarter 4 2017, the net investment of £17 billion by these businesses in short-term assets was the largest since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2007 (£19 billion).

In 2017, the provisional annual estimate of net investment by insurance companies, pension funds and trusts (£91 billion) was the largest since the start of this series in 1987; this was caused mainly by net investment in other assets (mainly mutual funds) at £42 billion, short-term assets at £35 billion and gilts at £29 billion.

The 2017 provisional annual estimate of net investment by unit trusts and property unit trusts (£76 billion) was the largest since the start of this series in 1984; this was caused mainly by net investment in overseas securities (£37 billion).


People, population and community

Revised population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2012 to mid-2016

We have made improvements to population estimates for England and Wales from mid-2012 to mid-2016; these revised figures include new estimates of local authority international emigration and foreign armed forces dependants.

While regional, county and local authority-level estimates have changed, national-level estimates for both England and Wales have been held constant and so related national-level releases such as the 2016-based national population projections are unaffected.

 The distribution of people aged in their 20s and 30s has changed more than for other age groups, resulting from the use of an updated emigration model and more timely data becoming available to distribute immigration for mid-2015 and mid-2016.
Of all local authorities, 96% have revised mid-2016 estimates that are less than 1% different to the original estimates; 212 local authorities experienced upward revisions and 136 experienced downward revisions.

The population in one local authority has been revised upwards by more than 5,000 people (Wandsworth), while four have been revised downwards by more than 5,000 people (Cambridge, Haringey, Oxford and Westminster).

"These revised population estimates, incorporating methodological improvements and previously unavailable data, only affect the distribution of the population across England and Wales. Of the 348 local authorities only 28 see their population estimate for mid-2016 revised by 1% or more. Downward revisions have mostly resulted from higher emigration estimates for areas containing international students and lower immigration for inner London."
Neil Park, Head of Population Estimates Unit, Office for National Statistics


Blog post: Population estimates: Improved methods, better statistics, better decisions

The latest population estimates from ONS bring greater clarity to the latest population changes in areas across England and Wales. As Neil Park explains, it's the result of using new and better data to better measure the local impact of important factors like migration.

 

Electoral Statistics, UK: 2017

Bulletin giving the latest figures for people registered to vote in Parliamentary and local government elections in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.  The figures are those recorded in electoral registers published on 1 December.

The total number of UK Parliamentary electors increased by 380,000 (0.8%) between December2016 and December 2017, a smaller increase than in the previous year.

Of the 650 Parliamentary constituencies in the UK, 480 (74%) had an increase in Parliamentary electors between December 2016 and December 2017.

The number of Parliamentary and local government electors increased across all four countries of the UK.

The total number of UK local government electors increased by more than half a million (1.2%) between December 2016 and December 2017.

Commenting on the findings, Neil Park from the Office for National Statistics said 

"In the year to December 2017, the number of people registered to vote in Parliamentary elections across the UK increased by around 400,000. This follows an increase of around 1 million the previous year. The number of registered Parliamentary electors currently stands at its highest level since 2012 and  is at least partly driven by there being either a general election or referendum in each of the past three years."

Visit the National Statistical blog to see the many ways ONS is working to give the UK better statistics for better decisions.

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Our digital team regularly write about our approach and progress to the website and social media.

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Find out how our Data Science Campus is exploring how sources such as administrative data & social data, and techniques such as machine learning and natural language processing, can improve our understanding of the UK's economy, communities & people.

Visit the Data Science Campus Blog

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